Sunday, May 24, 2009

Numbers, Odds, Randomness and Uncertainty

I love numbers.

Those words might come as a surprise from a writer, but, for as long as I can remember, I’ve been smitten with numbers as much as words. Numbers are comforting. They explain. They form patterns. They offer proof. They tell stories. They can predict the ending for those stories.

Or so I thought.

Turns out that my elaborate spreadsheets, line charts and data during treatment did little in the way of comforting, explaining, proving or predicting. At best, the numbers gave me the allusion of control.

In spite of my disillusionment with digits, I'm still fascinated by the science of predictability and the age-old question, "What are the odds?"

I was especially intrigued with this NY Times opinion piece by "the editors" and Leonard Mlodinow, author of “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives."

The author's answer to this email question struck a chord:

An earlier post by the psychologist Daniel Gilbert makes the argument that uncertainty — not knowing what misfortune will come — makes people more unhappy than misfortune itself. Do you find that to be true?

It does seem to be true of my own psychology. Also, I find that what’s most important, whatever happens, is how you deal with it. And once something bad actually happens, you can start that process, and bad can eventually even turn into good.
I'd never heard the uncertainty/unhappiness theory, but I can certainly relate. For me, the hardest stretches during diagnosis, treatment and remission have been the pockets of uncertainty. And Mlondinow gets it right in his response.

So how do we deal with the uncertainties of illness or life? Carl at A Pastor's Cancer Diary does a great job of describing the frustration (and eventual acceptance) of living with uncertainty, what Dr. Seuss called "the most useless place. The waiting place . . . "

For Carl and others, the operative word of "living with uncertainty" is living. And you don't need a spreadsheet for that.

(Leonard Mlodinow will be at Vroman's Bookstore in Pasadena on June 11. I'll be there.
5-25 Update: Oops. Mlodinow was at Vroman's in 2008. I'm only a year late. He's a local CalTech guy, so I hope I have another opportunity to hear him in person.)

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Another lover of numbers here. The rule of 9 never fails to fascinate me. In fact, if it were as easy to find a geometry or algebra class as it is to find adult ceramics or photography, I'd be there.

And the quote is perfectly true.

Mari Mansourian said...

Uncertainty can be an ugly place or a beautiful place, all depends on how you look at it right? And it is true "it's not what happens in life, but how you react to it that matters". Thanks for sharing your thoughts, as far as numbers... 8 somehow is a very significant number in my life, both great things and horrible things have happened with this number, so is it my lucky or unlucky number...??? We'll just leave it at "significant #" :)

Marcy said...

I find sometimes that when uncertainties are placed before us, it is during those moments that we have to find our own inner strenghts, as I know you have. In doing so we more often than not gain insight and perspective as to what is really important in life, that no matter what the misfortune, "Life is a Gift" and the days are numbered from our beginning. It is sometimes only through hard ships and uncertainties that we fully understand that, and only then begin to truly live no matter what the numbers. Have a wonderful Memorial day Susan and Bless u! xo~

Anonymous said...

Very interesting. My first thought was that this is where the Serenity Prayer comes in.

We don't like uncertainty because it doesn't give us a place to start planning and taking some kind of action, which makes us feel like we're gaining control. Just feeling like we have some control makes us feel better, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that, but in the end, although we may have a certain amount of control, we can not control everything. I think people who can accept that - and you're right, live as fully as possible within that - are very lucky.

Susan C said...

AH, I'd actually love to take a statistics class. And I think that a course in statistics should be a prerequisite for anyone holding elected office. Or, at the very least, a mini course in causality and correlation. (Can we still sign up Cheney for that one?) I was going to invite you to Vroman's with me, but I'm a year late.

Marinik, You're so right about the two faces of uncertainty. The comments that follow the NY Times article are wonderful. One, written by a woman recovering from a serious bike accident of them sums up beautifully that sentiment. Here's part of it:

"I said to her, explaining my fear and anxiety, “You know, I can’t see the way ahead.” She was silent, and then looked at me, and after some time she smirked ever so slightly and said simply “How exciting!!”

Marcy, You're so right. This topic reminds me of Japanese "strolling" gardens, which use a technique called "hide and reveal." I've had to learn to appreciate that, as opposed to seeing everything ahead all at once.

Janet, That's a good summation about why uncertainty can suck.

Great comments, everyone!

Dibyanshi said...

owo
good one ....

Thanks,
-Amaresh
http://amareshkrishna.blogspot.com/
http://bloghelpforbegineers.blogspot.com/
http://subjecttolifelovehope.blogspot.com/
http://awesompictures.blogspot.com/
http://mereprabhusmj.blogspot.com/
http://sardarjiback.blogspot.com/

Margaret said...

Hey! I know Leonard. He lives about a block away from me and our kids go the same schools. He is very nice and super smart. As for numbers, they are as foreign a language to me as Russian.

Susan C said...

Margaret, I do believe that your nice, smart neighbor could turn you into a lover of numbers.

While perusing everything I could find about Leonard and his writing, found a great story about how he inadvertently wrote his son's essay for English class. They got a 93.

Nelle said...

I used to be intensely interested in statistics. When I received my cancer diagnosis I was reading everything possible to see what the odds were in various medical books. Someone said to me "It doesn't matter what the general odds are, only what happens in YOUR case" and that really threw me and later I came to accept that and act accordingly. This is still a topic of interest to me, particularly randomness. I was the first person in either of my parents extended families to get cancer.

Ronni Gordon said...

Sometimes I felt calmer during treatment than afterwards because I had a sense of doing something productive, while after it is all done you don't have that purposefulness to help quiet your brain. Right now I'm re-learning how to deal with uncertainty, and it's hard. By the way I hate statistics when it comes to leukemia survival. They creep me out and I don't want to hear them. I tend to look at them with a glass-half-empty point of view. It's better if I just look at myself as an individual.

Unknown said...

I (heart) numbers, too.

I have to tear myself away from those addictive Google Analytics reports.

zhanglinnetwork said...

ok

Susan C said...

Nelle, You're so right about the statistics. I'm glad that one of the most articles someone forwarded to me after diagnosis was "The median is NOT the message," pointing out the foibles of getting caught up in median survival rates and all that jazz.

Ronni, I know exactly what you mean about being calmer during treatment than afterwards. So true! Everything about my cancer (my doctor calls it my "quirky cancer") is so unique, that I feel like none of the statistics apply to me. Glad you're taking the "individual" approach too. And, boy, you ARE an individual.

Piper Robert said...

Peanut butter and jelly.
Strothers and numbers.

Love numbers. (Another Strother trait.) I remember memorizing decimal equivalents to sixteenths for the fun of it. Music is easy for me to memorize. I look at staff notation as a long mathematical formula. This really works well for piobaireachd.

Remeber Mr. Hutchison??? James tells the story of Mr. Hutchison (geometry teacher) saying, "Why can't you be more like your brother and sister?" Probably not a good thing to say to a struggling teenage student, but since it involved James, it's funny.

While we're on the subject of Mr. Hutchison, he gave me a geometry problem during class and asked me to come to the chalk board to work the solution. He said I could sit down after I got the correct answer. I stood there the whole class period. When the bell rang and the class room emptied, he outlined the proper rationale. After that incident, geometry really clicked for me. I was the only one who got an A on the final. Good ol' Mr. Hutchison. Nothing like public humiliation for motivation. : )

Carl said...

Thanks for the shout-out, Susan.

Carl